What happens if Trump loses his election?

Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski Agence France-Presse Donald Trump takes the stage during a campaign rally at Van Andel Arena in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on November 5, 2024.

Léo Mercier-Ross

Published at 10:56

• United States

This text is the response to questions from two readers sent to the American Election Mail team. To subscribe, click here.

What will happen if Trump loses his election? ? What will be the impact of his defeat on him and his supporters? ?

— Éliane Huard

In the event of a Trump defeat, he will be furious and unleashed. Are there any fears about a possible civil war between the two clans? ? Do the Democrats have a plan to counter Trump’s fury in the aftermath of the election if he loses? ?

— France Séguin

If the result of the American presidential election is the “least close,” it would be “extremely surprising if Trump correctly recognized his defeat,” says Rafael Jacob, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.

A theory shared by David Grondin, a member of the Centre for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal. He explains that “the tighter it is, the greater the risk of excesses.” We can think of those that occurred on January 6, 2021, when Donald Trump supporters stormed the American Congress.

The potential transfer of power between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would go better than the transfer of the White House from Donald Trump to Joe Biden, because the two Democrats “would organize themselves to enforce the law,” adds Mr. Grondin. In addition, unlike in 2021, the police and secret services “must already be prepared to deal with something similar,” he believes.

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For Rafael Jacob, even if “there is only one side that has gone as far as what we had in January 2021, and that is the Trump side,” there is still a theoretical risk of revolt for both sides. “Are there people who have a knife between their teeth on both sides? ? The answer is yes. And is there a risk of political violence that one or the other wins? ? As for the answer, it is categorically yes, there is a risk,” says Mr. Jacob, specifying that “the risk is more acute with Trump.”

A civil war ?

Regarding the possibility that this discontent could evolve into a civil war between the two camps, Christophe Cloutier-Roy, deputy director of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair’s Observatory on the United States, explains that it would not be a conflict between states, as during the Civil War, but rather “an era marked by occasional political violence in the form of attacks or other acts of violence perpetrated by extremist organizations or ‘lone wolves’.”

The political scientist also notes that “this violence is already present, as evidenced by the shootings motivated by racial hatred, the events of January 6, 2021, or the recent assassination attempts against Trump.” “A defeat for Trump followed by his refusal to recognize the results could unfortunately further inflame the situation,” he adds.

According to David Grondin, even if a civil war between the two camps “is possible in the hypothesis”, it is not realistic, because “there would have to be a much stronger and more widespread organization movement than what we see at the moment.”

A Republican Party without Trump ?

In addition to the non-recognition of the election result, a defeat for Donald Trump would also bring changes within the Republican Party, which “will face a very uncertain future,” says Christophe Cloutier-Roy. The White House candidate has already expressed that he does not want to try his luck in the 2028 presidential election if he does not win this election — and he will have to continue to face justice, he points out.

After losing many traditional supporters, “particularly among white women and college-educated voters, the party will have to see if it can count on the lasting support of the new voters that Trump has brought in over the last 10 years, but whose support for the party was essentially driven by their enthusiasm for Trump,” he emphasizes.

In addition, “we can expect deep divisions within the party between those who want to take up the Trumpist mantle [like J.D. Vance and Ted Cruz] and those who seek to restore the pre-Trump Republican Party,” the expert suggests.

Rafael Jacob hopes for his part that a possible departure of Donald Trump from political life would lead to a “certain return to normal” in terms of the transfer of power and recognition of electoral results.