What role will the military play in Venezuela's presidential election?

Photo: Francisco Batista Miraflores Press Office via Agence France-Presse Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino during a military ceremony on June 24, 2023

Nina Negron – Agence France-Presse in Caracas

Published at 10:45

• Americas

“Chavez lives”, the Venezuelan military still shout today in tribute to Hugo Chavez who died in 2013. Despite everything, the opposition hopes that the army, pillar of power in Venezuela for 25 years, will respect and ensure respect the outcome of Sunday's presidential vote.

Chavez's designated successor, outgoing President Nicolas Maduro, is seeking a third six-year term, facing former ambassador Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, favored in the polls.

Under his presidency, Mr. Maduro has only increased the influence of the military, already particularly pampered by his predecessor Hugo Chavez (1999-2013). The former head of state had notably given them key positions in administration and the economy. And its constitutional reform of 1999 granted them the right to vote.

In addition to weapons, the armed forces today control mining, oil and food distribution companies, as well as customs and 12 of the 34 ministries, including important portfolios such as Oil, Defense, Interior or Commerce.

“The Bolivarian National Armed Force supports me, it is Chavista, it is Bolivarian, it is revolutionary,” Mr. Maduro reaffirmed this week.

“I swear that never this staff (of command) will never fall into the hands of an oligarch, a puppet, a traitor, I swear, never! Victory belongs to us,” he said on July 5 on the occasion of Independence Day.

For his part, the candidate of the The opposition Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, who replaced Maria Corina Machado at short notice, the leader of the opposition declared ineligible, called in an open letter in early July for the military to “respect and enforce (the) sovereign will” of the people during of the presidential election on Sunday.

The Venezuelan armed forces numbered 343,000 men in 2020, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a similar size to that of the Mexican army, although its population is four times greater.

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Photo: Matias Delacroix Associated Press Presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez and declared ineligible opposition leader Maria Corina Machado gathered their supporters for a parade on Tuesday in the streets of Maracaibo.

“Privileges”

After decades of being equipped with American equipment, Venezuela changed sides under Chavez, obtaining supplies from Russia, notably in Sukhoi planes and Kalashnikov rifles. In early July, two Russian military ships visited La Guaira, the port of Caracas.

The opposition and experts denounce corruption networks that have enriched many officers.

“Maduro does not have military leadership as commander in chief. “He is winning over the armed forces with privileges, promotions and the creation of new positions,” says retired General Antonio Rivero, a critic of Chavismo in exile in the United States.

So far, the institution has been monolithic in its support for President Maduro, especially when the United States, the European Union and most Latin American countries rejected his 2018 re-election as fraudulent.

“High-ranking military personnel have become incredibly powerful […] and some are involved in illicit affairs, or even direct them,” said Rebecca Hanson, professor at the Center for Latin American Studies at the University of Florida. “They have a lot to lose if Maduro falls.”

Nearly 50 senior officials, active or retired, are on the US sanctions list. The first were included in 2008 for their alleged links to Colombian guerrillas. Subsequently, others were accused of drug trafficking and, more recently, of human rights violations.

At the same time, human rights organizations denounce the detention for political reasons of dozens of soldiers (149 as of July 1) and the death in custody of three of them.

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“Black Box”

Renata Segura of the International Crisis Group describes the armed forces as “the black box the most unknown in Venezuela.”

“It's a very hermetic world”, but if the opposition wins, “it will be a determining actor, either to put pressure on the government to accept the result, or to go out and crack down if there are protests,” she said.

Since 1999, the opposition has won only two national elections: in 2007, when a referendum to reform the Venezuelan Constitution was rejected, and in 2015, when it won an absolute majority in Parliament.< /p>

Ms. Segura recalls an “important precedent” in 2015: the current Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino, then recognized the result and praised “the behavior of the Venezuelan people” during of a speech.