What to Expect from the US Congressional Elections?

Photo: Andrew Harnik Associated Press Among the plausible scenarios based on the latest polls, the House of Representatives could swing to the Democrats and the Senate could go Republican.

Magdaline Boutros

Posted at 14:33

• United States

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Tomorrow, Americans will not only choose their president, they will also elect 468 members of Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, as are a third of the Senate, or 33 seats. These legislative elections—critical to determining whether the next president will have a free hand in governing—are just as close as the presidential election.

Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, where each state’s number of seats is proportional to its demographic weight. Democrats, meanwhile, narrowly control the Senate, where each state holds two seats.

Among the plausible scenarios, according to the latest polls, the House of Representatives could go to the Democrats and the Senate could swing to the Republicans. If this reversal of the two chambers materializes, it would be a first in more than 230 years, since congressional elections have been held, according to the American network CNN.

Even before the start of the election campaign, the vast majority of seats were acquired by one or the other party, explains to Devoir John Mark Hansen, an expert in American politics at the University of Chicago. “About a third of the contested seats in the Senate and around 10% of the seats in the House of Representatives are actually in competition. »

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Senate Races

The U.S. Senate currently has 49 Republicans, 48 ​​Democrats, and three independents who vote with Democrats. To control the Senate, Republicans must win two seats—or one if the vice president-elect this week is a Republican (the vice president can break a tie in the Senate).

“The Senate seats to pay attention to are those in states where the allegiance has shifted in a different direction than the current incumbent,” Hansen says.

For example, it’s almost a given that Joe Manchin’s West Virginia seat, elected as a Democrat before becoming an independent, will fall to Republicans. In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Donald Trump won the popular vote in this rural state by more than 40 points.

Keeping Sherrod Brown’s seat in Ohio will be crucial for Democrats. But the state voted for Donald Trump by more than 8 percentage points in both 2016 and 2020, suggesting that Republicans could capture the seat.

Democrat Jon Tester’s seat in Montana is equally critical for control of the Senate. But again, the state has clearly shifted in favor of Republicans in recent elections.

House Races

The House of Representatives currently has 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats (with three vacancies). To regain their majority lost in 2022, the Democrats must therefore seek at least 4 new seats.

Of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives, only 30 to 40 could change allegiance. “There are a lot of districts, and they’re small, so voters [in a district] are often overwhelmingly one-party or the other,” says John Mark Hansen.

Potential swing seats include swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona and Michigan, but also Democratic states like New York and California, where several Republicans hold seats in districts that Biden won in 2020, according to an analysis by the Washington Post.

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Blockages Ahead?

In recent US history, the vast majority of presidents have been able to count on a Congress that was loyal to their party during their first years in office before the midterm elections changed the situation, notes Mr. Hansen.

In any case, if a Democratic majority in Congress does not accompany a possible victory by Kamala Harris — or if a Republican majority is not in Donald Trump's pocket if he is elected — the next American presidency risks being chaotic and marked by many blockages.

“The polarization in the House of Representatives and the Senate has become so deep that it is difficult to advance issues if your party does not control the majority in Congress,” summarizes Mr. Hansen.