What will the weather be like in October, November and December ? Here are the forecasts from Météo France

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There A few days ago, Météo France published its weather forecasts for the end of 2024. Although there are uncertainties inherent in long-term forecasts, these projections provide valuable insights into the weather conditions that the country could experience.

The Great West is dry

One of the most striking elements of these forecasts concerns the Great West of France. According to Météo France, which was taken up by Ouest France, this region has a 50% probability of experiencing a drier than normal end of year, compared to 33% in a normal situation.

This trend is explained by the anticipated presence of more frequent anticyclonic conditions over the nearby Atlantic and western Europe. This means that high pressure areas should position themselves more often off the French coast and act as a natural shield against rain disturbances coming from the Atlantic. These weather systems would then be deflected towards the north of Europe, which will leave the Great West in drier conditions than usual.

© Météo France

This weather configuration is illustrated by pressure anomaly maps atmospheric, which show a pressure zone higher than normal over the nearby Atlantic (see map above). These forecasts provided by Météo France are based on the aggregation of data from around ten seasonal models, thus reinforcing the reliability of this trend.

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For the rest of the country, Météo France indicates that no trend clear does not emerge in terms of precipitation. This uncertainty for other regions of mainland France highlights the complexity of long-term weather forecasts and the potential variability of climate conditions across the country.

Other weather services such as La Chaîne Météo and Météo Villes suggest that anticyclonic conditions could extend beyond the Grand Ouest, which could then lead to drier conditions over a larger part of France, particularly for October and November.

Marked uncertainty

As for temperatures, the situation is even more uncertain: Météo France reports “marked uncertainty” and does not put forward any preferred scenario for the coming quarter across the country as a whole. This lack of a clear trend is rare and breaks with a long series of forecasts that, for several months, have systematically announced temperatures above seasonal norms.

This uncertainty does not necessarily mean that temperatures will be in line with normals, but rather that the forecast models are failing to identify a clear trend.

In the current context of climate change where the general trend is towards rising temperatures, this absence of a signal for higher than normal temperatures is in itself an interesting element: it could indicate a particular weather configuration for the end of the year and perhaps different from what we have experienced in recent years.

A little reminder: these long-term forecasts are always subject to adjustments and clarifications as we get closer to the period concerned. Actual weather conditions can be influenced by many factors that are not always predictable several months in advance, as Météo France specifies.

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