What's happening in Syria?

Photo: Mohammed Al-Rifai Agence France-Presse An anti-government fighter destroys a portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on November 30, 2024.

Magdaline Boutros

Published at 0:00

• Middle East

After quickly conquering Aleppo, jihadist rebels faced intense fighting on Tuesday in the Hama region, where the troops of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — supported by Russian aircraft — are putting up much fiercer resistance.

Deciphering the situation with Professor Fabrice Balanche at the University of Lyon, author of the book Les leçons de la crise Syriene (Odile Jacob, 2024).

Who is leading the military offensive launched last week in Syria ?

The radical group Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (HTS) is leading the charge against the forces of the al-Assad regime in northwestern Syria. The organization was founded by Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, a Syrian jihadist who left for Iraq in 2003 to fight the US forces alongside al-Qaeda.

“[There], he was arrested, then imprisoned in the famous Abu Ghraib prison, where he met Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the future leader of Daesh [the Islamic State armed group],” says Fabrice Balanche.

Back in Syria, in the summer of 2012 he founded the al-Nusra Front (Victory Front in French), a jihadist group fighting the al-Assad regime during the civil war. Following tensions between al-Joulani and al-Baghdadi, the movement split: the al-Nusra Front concentrated its fight in the west of the country, while Daesh expanded into eastern Syria, where it was crushed by the international coalition against the Islamic State.

In the spring of 2016, the al-Nusra Front dissociated itself from al-Qaeda and changed its name to Hayat Tahrir al-Cham (Levant Liberation Group, in French).

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Has Hayat Tahrir al-Sham become a less radical organization than al-Qaeda? ?

Not at all, or barely, says Mr. Balanche. “They broke away for tactical reasons, but ideologically, the group remains al-Qaeda.”

The split was intended to facilitate a rapprochement between HTS and the West and some Arab countries. “[Al-Joulani] thought that by distancing himself from al-Qaeda, he could gain favor with the Gulf oil monarchies, Turkey and the West [with a view to obtaining military support] to confront the al-Assad regime [during the civil war].”

The operation did not work, however. After fierce fighting, opposition forces lost the battle for Aleppo in 2016 to loyalist forces, supported militarily by Russia.

HTS then retreated to the Idlib region in the northwest of the country, where it founded an Islamic emirate similar to the one established by Daesh in Raqqa — “minus the atrocities and public executions, so as not to attract too much attention,” Mr. Balanche said.

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Turkey subsequently deployed its troops in the region, “preventing the Syrian army from crushing the rebellion in Idlib and creating a sort of status quo.”

After these years of calm, why did HTS and its allies decide to go on the attack again ?

The advance of the rebels in Syria is the logical continuation of the war waged by Israel against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the strikes carried out by the Hebrew state in Iran. Hezbollah and Iran are the two main allies of the al-Assad government—along with Russia, whose troops are fighting in Ukraine.

“[The rebels] took advantage of Hezbollah's weakening and the fact that Iranian logistics have been decapitated by Israeli strikes to launch an assault on Aleppo,” the country's second city, Mr. Balanche summarizes.

Destabilizing Syria also allows “cutting off the Iranian axis,” preventing Hezbollah from replenishing its stockpile of missiles, since the weapons supplied by Iran to the Shiite group transit through Syria.

According to Mr. Balanche, Syria constitutes the “weak link” in the Iranian axis – formed by Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – since the country is Sunni, unlike Iran and its other allies, which are Shiite. The ayatollahs are imposing their control over the country “by force”, without being able to benefit from strong popular support, he adds.

We are therefore currently witnessing a major reshaping of the forces present in the region.

Could the jihadist rebels take Damascus and overthrow the al-Assad government ?

In its lightning offensive, HTS arrived in Aleppo from Idlib, in the west, while other rebel factions supported by Turkey emerged in the east, creating a encirclement of the city. This is the first time since the start of the civil war in 2011 that the Syrian government has completely lost control of Aleppo.

The Assad regime’s forces have not put up much resistance around Aleppo, but they have managed to regroup and strengthen their defense lines in Hama province, further south, where fighting was raging on Tuesday.

It is difficult at this point to imagine that the rebels will be able to continue their march to the capital and topple the Assad regime, Mr. Balanche said. “There is not really a popular uprising in Damascus in their favor,” he added.

In recent days, Russia has bombed rebel positions from the air with the support of the Syrian air force. For their part, the rebels do not have air forces at their disposal, nor a large number of armored vehicles to break through enemy lines.

Why does Turkey support the jihadist rebels ?

Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, is home to more than three million Syrian refugees who have fled the civil war, and the country militarily occupies part of Syria's territory in the north.

The Erdogan government reportedly gave its approval for the rebels to launch their offensive on Aleppo. Then, on Tuesday, Turkey asked Damascus to negotiate “a compromise with its own people and the legitimate opposition.”

By supporting the rebels, Turkey is pursuing a dual objective involving the maintenance of a “security zone” in northern Syria that would be under Turkish control, explains Fabrice Balanche. This zone would first allow the southern Turkish border to be purged of the Kurdish threat. “There is a process of ethnic cleansing against the Kurds [in this region] to replace them with Arab and Turkmen populations loyal to Turkey,” explains the expert.

Then, this zone would allow the Syrian refugees to be sent home. “Erdogan’s party lost votes in the last elections because of the presence of Syrian refugees, who upset quite a few Turks.” The buffer zone could therefore offer these Syrians a safe space to return home.