Satya Nadella at Microsoft Build 2024. @Microsoft
In the style of Christopher Nolan's 2000 film “Memento”, let's go with a reverse timeline. In other words, let's start at the end: no, the AI PC revolution is not underway. At least not for 2024.
When the first computers bearing the Copilot+ label were officially released last May, there was a whiff of enthusiasm in the air. These products with AI features were supposed to revive a market that had been in decline since the end of the Covid pandemic. Unfortunately, at the end of this year, manufacturers are looking gloomy.
The rush to AI PCs has not happened
According to figures from Gartner and IDC, the number of PCs sold worldwide fell by 2.4% in the third half of 2024 and by 8.8% since the beginning of the year. Recently, Dell announced a 1% drop in revenue in value for its PC business since last year, while volume sales fell by 4%.
Its competitor HP is not doing much better, with a 2% increase in sales over the last half, but a 0.4% drop over one year. Above all, even if there is a tiny increase, it is well below the estimates announced for the American giant.
In this gloom, only Lenovo, the world leader with 24% market share, seems unlikely to fail.The Asian company is showing growth of 3% in the third quarter between 2023 and 2024. But this increase also needs to be weighed.
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These sales figures are undifferentiated. Without AI PCs, the firm Chinese would have progressed slightly anyway ? Most certainly, especially because the year 2023 was catastrophic for all brands. In France alone, Lenovo saw its sales decline by 14% over the whole of 2023.
Can we be surprised by this?? Not really. Such a sudden technological shift does not happen in the space of a few months. However, behind this situation lies a deeper issue. The laptop industry is currently at a pivotal moment in its history. And its players seem far from being united to confront it at the moment.
AI PC, Copilot+: the great confusion
To clearly understand the issues of a revolution, you first need to know precisely what we are talking about. And that is the first problem. In the world of PCs, it is currently chaos.
Generally speaking, on one side we have PCs that claim to be AI friendly. These are capable of accelerating AI processing in certain software (Adobe Creative, Cisco Webex or Zoom) and in video games. This is particularly the case for PCs equipped with a 14th generation Intel Core Ultra (Meteor Lake) or an AMD “Ryzen AI” chip.
As early as 2023, many models were already equipped with an NPU. And therefore considered AI PCs. @AMD < p>Unveiled drop by drop since the end of 2023, these AI PCs also have in their architecture a “Neural Processing Unit”, the famous NPU. Its main task is to offer capabilities machine learning and AI. The big news is that some of these calculations can be done locally, without the need for constant access to remote servers.
< strong>Last May, Microsoft came up with its own definition of an AI PC, using the umbrella term: PC Copilot +.A sort of label that a PC must have at least the following hardware specifications: 16 GB of RAM, a 250 GB SSD, and a 40 TOPS (Tera Operations per Second) NPU. Put like this, several things need to be clarified. First of all, all PCs labeled Copilot+ are AI PCs, but not necessarily the other way around.
Satya Nadella at Microsoft Build 2024. @Microsoft
Furthermore, an AI Copilot + PC should not be confused with Microsoft’s AI Copilot assistant. The latter is accessible to everyone, from a web browser or as an iOS and Android app. All this for free. There's also no need to get tangled up with Copilot Pro, a subscription service that allows, among other things, the integration of AI tools into the Microsoft 365 suite, in order to gain productivity on Word or even on PowerPoint presentation layouts.
Finally, all new PCs less than a year old are equipped with a new specific “Copilot” key. Located next to the space bar, the latter allows you to directly launch the eponymous service, rather than going through a web tab. However, only products with a Qualcomm chip can currently benefit from the local AI features developed by Microsoft.
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For example, the Asus Zenbook S16 we reviewed this summer has this key. However, it can't access the same AI features, for now, as the Lenovo Yoga Slim 7x we got our hands on for our review. You are lost ? That's normal.
PC Copilot+ : new AI features that go pschiit !
Concretely, a PC stamped Copilot+ is capable of offering the following AI features : creative tools in the Paint and Photo apps, instant video translation and new video effects in Windows Studio Effects.
Let's not beat around the bush, there's not much to save there. Let's start with the least bad. Paint's co-authoring mode lets you quickly turn a doodle into something (watercolor, animated, pixel art, photorealistic, etc.). It works well, but it's fun for 30 minutes, no more.
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In the native Photo application, a tool based on Open AI's Dall-E 3 also lets you give free rein to your imagination by creating images. Or by quickly retouching them. Here too, if the execution is not to blame, the usefulness is still questionable. Just like with Paint's co-authoring mode, it is possible to perform these tasks by online for free on…Dall-E, precisely, on the free version of Canvas or even on Craiyon.
So what's the point ? Microsoft's big promise was that these features could work locally, and therefore without an Internet connection. This is not always the case yet. For example, the co-creation mode on Paint cannot be used offline. And what about real-time translation. It only works once in four times. And then, it too has a certain air of déjà vu. At present, many solutions already exist and offer the same thing (YouTube, Zoom and even on Teams).
What are these “new” webcam effects on Windows Studio Effects worth ? A Copilot+ PC needs an NPU to offer automatic cropping or a new blur mode. Who is Microsoft kidding??
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There is still the famous key that allows you to launch Copilot without having to juggle your tabs. For the moment, the interactions do not have a real added value compared to the web interface. For example, it is not possible to manage things as basic as the brightness or sound of your PC. Yet another promise not kept by Microsoft, for the moment.< /p>
Only the Recall feature, which should allow you to trace your entire activity on your PC, brought a bit of new features to these products. Unfortunately, given the understandable controversies over access to such private data, Recall is (at the time of writing) still unavailable in its final version.
Equipping yourself with a Copilot+ PC? The case of the Lenovo Yoga Clim 7
Our harshness towards these “new features” is matched only by the way Microsoft has highlighted them. For the moment, the Copilot+ PCs are not revolutionary in terms of pure AI, nor in terms of interaction. It is simple branding.
Of course, this is only the beginning, and Microsoft's promise hood is still full. The firm promises for example greater integration of Copilot in the OS or even the possibility of exchanging live vocally with your computer on a specific activity. Like during a video game.
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If the result is enticing on the demo, it is better with Microsoft to do like Saint-Thomas. In other words, to see, before believing. Therefore, we cannot advise you to rush to a PC AI Copilot+. At least, not at the moment.
This is very damaging, because it casts opprobrium on products stamped PC Copilot+. While they are far from all bad. Above all, their new architectures are a small palace revolution in the world of Windows PCs.
Indeed, the very first wave of PC Copilot+ that have arrived on our shelves in the last few weeks are all powered by Snapdragon X Elite or X Plus chipsets. The Redmond firm having concluded for this beginning a sort of exclusivity with Qualcomm. This is the case for models like the Dell XPS 13 (€1,299), the Asus Vivobook S15 Oled (€1,299), the Acer Swift 14 AI (€1,099) or even our test model, the Lenovo Yoga Slim 7x (€1,599).
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Yes, so what ? You are probably aware that Qualcomm produces ARM processors and not x86 like the Intel and AMD duopoly. And although this is not the first attempt to run Microsoft's OS under ARM, this (temporary) position of strength by Qualcomm is relatively enlightening.
Microsoft seems to believe that the ARM/Windows/AI trio will allow it to take its revenge on Apple and its MacBooks. From there, to having a hidden roadmap with the internal development of an “in-house” ARM chip ? And why not… Apple has done it well with the success we know.
However, this exclusivity of Qualcomm is not set in stone. In September, Microsoft announced that upcoming computers powered by new x86 processors from Intel (Lunar Lake) and AMD (Strix Point) will also benefit from Copilot+'s AI experiences.
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To get back to this Lenovo Yoga Slim 7x, yes it is under Copilot+ and yes, it is a very good laptop. It has all the qualities required for a student needing to run creative software or for a freelancer. Its 14.5-inch OLED screen is beautiful, its keyboard is pleasant to use and its design is successful. Easy to carry, it is only 1.3 cm thick, while its featherweight is more than appreciable, 1.28 Kg. It is “only” 4 grams more than a MacBook Air M3.
200% Deposit Bonus up to €3,000 180% First Deposit Bonus up to $20,000Finally, and this is also one of the big advantages of an ARM architecture, its autonomy is amazing: almost 16 hours. In this area too, it does almost as well as a MacBook Air. The only slight disappointment is its too stingy connectivity (3 USB-C ports).
Tech World 2024: Lenovo, AMD and Intel in the same boat?
To deepen our analysis of the upheavals shaking up this sector, we headed to Seattle in October to attend Lenovo Tech World 2024. A major annual event organized by the manufacturer during which it unveils its ambitions and new products. And this is aimed as much at the general public as at the business sector.
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During the plenary session of this event, Yuanqing Yang, CEO of Lenovo, obviously repeated the clichés dear to all good leaders of 'a tech giant. “We believe that every company will become an AI company, and every person with a PC will have the power of AI at their fingertips.”Before we continue:
In the future, you don't need to go to the cloud to use AI. Everything happens on my device. I don't need a network, and I don't need to send my precious data to the cloud. This is how we think about the future of AI PCs.
A topic that is terribly lacking in the first Copilot+ AI PCs.
Yuanqing Yang, CEO of Lenovo at Tech World 2024 © Lenovo
To corroborate his words, the CEO even went so far as to make his exclusive announcement . Lenovo has officially launched its own AI Now chatbot.Using a local LLM based on Meta's Llama 3.1, the latter provides ultra-personalized interaction in real time based on the user's personal knowledge. All this, without depending on the cloud.
Entirely developed in-house, it will be available in early 2025 on a selection of Lenovo AI PCs. Products that will run on AMD and Intel architectures, since the Chinese company has chosen them as key technology partners for this new tool. Moreover, the former CEO of Intel, Pat Gelsinger was present, as was Lisa Su, CEO of AMD and the company leader of the year 2024 according to Times magazine.
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© Time
The opportunity for them to also drop another bomb. The establishment of a historic partnership. These former enemy brothers announced the creation of a consultation committee around the x86 ecosystem. The idea being to develop this architecture in order to give it a competitive advantage in the face of the inexorable advance of ARM .And given the companies involved, it is easy to understand that this is no laughing matter: Google, Meta, Dell, Oracle, HP, Hewlett Packard, Lenovo of course, but also… Microsoft.
Moreover, during this Lenovo Tech World 2024, one absence on stage was rather noticeable. And it caused a bit of a stir in the stands. That of Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft. The latter only spoke via a recorded video message, while the firm's offices are located in Redmond, just a stone's throw from Seattle. Is there any trouble in the gas ? Not officially.
What is the short-term future for Copilot+ AI PCs ?
Lenovo's announcement of AI Now is interesting in several ways. First of all, this chatbot will be available on AI Copilot+ PCs. Document and calendar management, videoconference transcription, real-time changes to PC settings… It therefore brings, at least on paper, added value similar to the Copilot button interface.
In our opinion, this is an indication that the world's leading PC vendor does not seem to want to have its AI agenda dictated exclusively by Microsoft. Behind the scenes, this is also the interpretation that was unanimously accepted by the world press. The battle for AI in IT is only just beginning. While it is still unclear who will emerge victorious, it seems prudent for Lenovo not to put all its eggs in Microsoft's basket.
A preview of the homepage of Lenovo's AI Now chatbot – © Lenovo
Lenovo also seems to have understood that this AI battle cannot be won without showing a clean pair of heels on the protection of personal data. This is an imperative. Just look at the outcry caused in the first instance by Microsoft's Recall feature.
This is also why, in addition to its local use, its AI Now chatbot will be able to provide access to cloud-based services. To achieve this, users will have, according to Lenovo, ” full control over this access and explicit consent will be required each time “.
Finally, this new chatbot is part of the broader strategy ” from pocket to cloud “Lenovo. Namely, to become the world's leading AI provider in the future through its PCs, smartphones, tablets and servers. As such, the professional sector will logically be the main driver in this transition.
© Lenovo
According to forecasts from Gartner and Canalys, who for once agree down to the last comma, all PCs purchased by companies in 2026 will be AI PCs. For these analysis firms, the professional sector will then no longer ask itself the question “should I invest in PC AI ?” but will rather ask themselves which PC AI to turn to, an x86 or an ARM ?
Because, while not all AI PCs are currently Copilot+ PCs, it is clear that Microsoft will use its influence in the future to ensure that they all come under this label. However, each manufacturer will be able, like Lenovo, to bring its own layer of AI inside. Will they be useful on a daily basis?? We asked Daryl Cromer, VP and CTO of PCs and connected devices at Lenovo, in Seattle:
AI will be able to shift our current app-based world to an intent-based world. Today, we are at the first level. Your calendar app knows your flight time and sends you a notification and a route. With AI Now, we want to bring more complexity. For example, I have to go to this place and I didn’t eat lunch. Then, AI will be able to analyze your knowledge graph and suggest a takeout restaurant based on what you like while optimizing the ordering and travel time. To do this, an AI must be able to build a knowledge map based on your preferences and desires. And on the other hand, the user must be comfortable enough with the AI to allow it to do these things on your behalf. Or at least submit them for your approval.
Daryl Cromer, left, VP and CTO of PCs and Connected Devices © Lenovo
Of course, the man is not fooled. With 23 years of experience in tech (15 years at Lenovo and 7 years at IBM), he knows full well that some will embrace these tools and others will remain resistant or will only use them marginally. “And that's not a big deal in itself,” he tells us with a smile. Our whole challenge is to reduce the complexity of AI so that it helps us in our daily lives without us having to think about it “.
Finally, even if the Copilot+ AI PCs are not creating a stir for the moment, everything suggests that their adoption will still be effective. Very slow, but effective.
A teaching method on the Copilot+ AI PCs that is absent
Back in Paris, we took a detour to the huge Fnac located in Châtelet, just to take a look at the computer section. While advertisements are everywhere to extol the merits of the Copilot+ PCs, they are rather rare on the shelves.
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Of the 55 models exhibited, there are only 10, including 3 PC Copilot+ Microsoft Surface. Also, they are somewhat mixed. For example, of the 9 computers in the photo below, two are Copilot+ PCs, and the others are regular PCs. Not easy to find your way around…
Of the 9 computers on this table, “only” two are Copilot+ PCs © Presse-citron
Moreover, a salesperson half-heartedly explains to us that no additional sales force has been planned by Microsoft for the weekends before Christmas. However, this is a crucial period for users, who often travel to find out about new products in stores. In this confusion, it is obviously not really Fnac that should be blamed…
As early as June 2024, the IDC firm was already warning manufacturers about the need for education. By stating that, despite a gradual migration of individuals to NPU-equipped PCs, “ it will not be easy to educate users on the advantages of on-premises AI compared to cloud-based solutions.” Which implies that the majority of people will equip themselves with a more powerful AI PC to do, at least initially, the same thing they could do with their old models. In this same report, IDC stated in black and white the following:
Outside of refresh cycles, AI PCs are expected to drive an increase in shipments in the short term. However, in the long term, they are unlikely to increase shipment volume. On the other hand, they are expected to drive an increase in average selling prices.
And yes. In 2024, the average price of a PC is around 730 euros. On their side, AI Copilot+ PCs are currently high-end products. With a price ranging between 1200 and 2500 euros…
Nothing ventured, nothing gained…© Presse-citron
Two questions therefore remain unanswered. What is going on between Microsoft and the PC and chip manufacturers?? Are all these players ready to follow the American giant body and soul in its AI strategy towards the general public??
Whatever is currently happening behind the scenes, Microsoft has every interest in not being caught out by anterograde amnesia. Just like Leonard Shelby, the hero of Christopher Nolan's film Memento. After missing the smartphone turn (through isolation and stubbornness), watch out for another road lapse.
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