Why do immigrants, women or Latinos still vote for Trump?

Photo: Joel Martinez via Associated Press A hat that says “Latinos for Trump”

Sarah R. Champagne

Published at 0:00

• United States

This text is the answer to readers’ questions sent to the American Election Mail team. To subscribe, click here.

Why are so many African-Americans going to vote for Trump? ? The same goes for Spanish speakers. ? And women. ? They are constantly denigrated!

— Louise Desrosiers

How do women, immigrants or people of color vote for Trump? ? What is their reasoning? ?

— Michèle Bazin

Often, there is a lack of understanding about the motivations of the people who vote for him. They are not all idiots. Why would they want to vote for the Republican candidate? ?

— Dominique Reynolds

Before and after the provocative false statements of the September 10 debate about Haitian immigrants, many of you wondered how some electorates could continue to want to vote for Donald Trump in November.

Immigrants, Hispanics, African-Americans: shouldn't some of the presidential candidate's remarks put off these voters for good? ? Same questioning about women voting for a man found guilty of hiding the payment of a bribe to buy the silence of a former porn actress. This is the same man, as a reminder, caught saying “ grab them by the pussy” on a recording that caused a stir during the 2016 campaign.

The question underlying all these others is whether a voter’s demographic labels influence their vote or not.

“Yes, it is useful to explain certain variances in voting choices,” responds Ruth Dassonneville, professor of political science at the University of Montreal and researcher at CERIUM. These variables bring “identities” that, in turn, highlight certain claims.

But the relationships between socio-demographic characteristics and electoral choices can be “more or less strong,” notes the expert. It is therefore “never 100%” that African-Americans will, for example, prefer the Democratic Party.

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Hierarchy of identities

These labels “can conflict with other identities or other preferences,” continues Ms. Dassonneville.

The rather conservative values ​​of some members of these communities can, for example, steer them toward the Republican Party and its positions on abortion or same-sex marriage.

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This is what several commentators are arguing on the conservative Fox News channel. The Democrats are said to be “disconnected” from Latin Americans, argues Pastor Samuel Rodriguez, a regular guest on television shows. The party’s position on abortion “disturbs” this community, particularly believers.

This is also what can influence the vote of some women. The group Women for Trump has made it one of the standard-bearers of its interventions.

None of these groups, taken in their broadest definition, however, vote in majority for Republicans. Women in particular would not be more than 35% in favor of voting for Trump, according to a recent poll by The 19th, a media outlet specializing in gender issues.

Other factors to consider

There is also another divide that conflicts with the behavior of minorities, that related to education, describes the professor: “The more educated we are – if we went to university, in particular – the more we tend to vote for progressive parties.”

In short, different considerations come into conflict and these groups do not vote homogeneously. This is what is puzzling many specialists in the different Latin American communities. “There is no Latino vote,” wrote for example in The Atlantic Geraldo L. Cadava, historian at Northwestern University.

This famous electoral “sleeping giant” cannot in fact be reduced to a single contingent that votes as a bloc, argues the professor.

There is indeed a great diversity of communities across the country. The Latinos of Arizona, some of whom were formerly without status. The Cuban exiles of Miami. The Spanish speakers of southern Texas, who have been Americans for eight generations.

In the same couple that fits into the small “Latino” box of the census or polls, there can be two different opinions, as in a couple from Houston visited by Le Devoirin 2020. The husband votes for Donald Trump: a businessman born in Honduras and an American citizen for over 20 years, he likes his image of success and wealth. She, more recently arrived from Colombia, said she was already fed up with his arrogance and sexism.

Economic appearances above all

“Economic attitudes” count for a lot, also says Ruth Dassonneville, who studies this aspect of electoral behavior.

“Racial minorities in the United States are economically disadvantaged and feel that it is the fault of those currently in power,” she explains. Donald Trump claims that the economy will improve if he is elected, which may appeal to undecided ears.

Racial identity is therefore not always the most important factor: “The first need of an individual is to survive. People ask themselves: are things going well for me? Afterwards, you can think about something else,” concludes the expert.

Did Women Really Elect Trump in 2016 ?

Mr. Trump has praised the women's vote in several speeches during his presidency. The figure that was circulating at the time was that 62% of white women voted for him. This was a percentage collected in exit polls. This type of polling has many flaws, however, including relying primarily on the most enthusiastic: they are based on voters who voluntarily state their preference.

Other, more in-depth studies have determined that it was rather 47% of white women who voted for him in 2016. This proportion even decreases to 39% for women from all backgrounds, according to the Pew Research Center.

The same research center recently determined that 49% of women surveyed believe that Kamala Harris' policies “would make things better.” In contrast, 46% of respondents said they believe that Donald Trump's policies “would make things worse.”