Why have hostilities resumed in Syria?

Photo: Ghaith Alsayed Associated Press Syrian opposition fighters drive a Syrian army armored vehicle southwest of Aleppo, Syria, on Sunday.

Leo Mercier-Ross

Posted at 4:21 p.m.

• Middle East

The resumption of hostilities in Syria between rebel groups led by Islamists and the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad is a symptom of the geopolitical climate currently prevailing in the Middle East, according to experts interviewed by Le Devoir. The recent offensives by rebel groups are the first of this scale since 2020 in Syria, where civil war has been raging since 2011.

On Sunday, fighting led to the capture of Aleppo, Syria’s second city, by Islamist-led rebel groups. The country’s industrial capital had been under regime control, backed by Russia and Iran, since 2016.

That the start of this offensive comes just days after a truce went into effect in Lebanon between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah, an ally of Syria, is no coincidence, says Jabeur Fathally, an associate professor of international law at the University of Ottawa. “The Syrian army has been greatly weakened by ten years of conflict and because Hezbollah's support no longer exists,” he says.

“In 2015, when Syria began to regain ground, it was partly thanks to the support of members of the Lebanese Hezbollah. Today, Hezbollah has another confrontation,” notes the Middle East expert, referring to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas, of which Hezbollah is an ally. “I think they [the rebel groups] have taken full advantage of this truce.”

Who else stands to benefit from this “decline in power” in Lebanon and the increase in control of jihadist rebel groups? ? The United States and Turkey, notes Sami Aoun, director of the Raoul Dandurand Chair’s Middle East and North Africa Observatory. Both nations have expressed support and backed various Syrian rebel factions, and stand to gain from a decline in Iranian influence and a stabilization of the Syrian regime, the political scientist says.

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The Turkish and American governments “have an interest in stabilizing the Syrian regime again to close the borders between Iraq and Syria, because it is considered the transitional border for arms and munitions between Iraq and Syria, between Syria and Lebanon,” Jabeur Fathally specifies as an example.

To achieve “further weakening of Lebanese Hezbollah,” as the United States wishes, “we must weaken Syria,” summarizes Mr. Fathally. How to weaken Syria ? By “activating terrorist groups to seize Deraa [a city in southwestern Syria near the border with Lebanon] and other localities and close the border between Iraq and Syria,” he says.

The White House judged on Sunday that the Syrian regime was suffering the consequences of “its refusal” to engage in political dialogue and its “dependence on Russia and Iran.”

Turkey also has “an interest in the 8 million displaced Syrians on its territory returning home,” adds Sami Aoun.

“The Trump effect”

For the latter, on the US side, we must not neglect the “Trump effect”, because the shockwave of his re-election continues to be felt across the world. In this period of transition of American powers, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to present his country as an ally of the United States and as “the power that can limit Iran's influence in Syria”, explains Mr. Aoun.

On the other hand, “Trump could take up an idea he had in his first term, that of the American withdrawal from the [Syrian] region which is dominated by the Kurds, who are the sworn enemies of Turkey and Erdogan himself,” he notes.

For Jabeur Fathally, Donald Trump’s decisions in this matter could determine the continuation of the conflict. “For the next few weeks, [the clashes] will continue with the same intensity, and even more, while waiting for Trump to be sworn in,” predicts the University of Ottawa professor. Two scenarios are possible according to the expert: a withdrawal by the United States as during the billionaire’s first term or the imposition by Mr. Trump of a “solution” in the Middle East, as he promised during the election campaign.

And Russia ?

In addition to Iran, the Syrian government has been able to count on another ally in this civil war: Russia. Unlike Turkey, Moscow “has no interest in this transition period and the arrival of Trump at the White House,” says Sami Aoun. The result ? The Iranian government’s call on Saturday for “coordination” with Russia in the face of the rebel offensive in Syria is unlikely to be heard, believes the professor at the University of Sherbrooke.

Especially since “Iran feels humiliated [internationally] by a defeat of the Syrian army of the Assad regime. While Russia does not feel it, since it has relations with Israel, with the Americans and with the Europeans directly,” he explains.

As for Canada, the country must “be wary,” Jabeur Fathally emphasizes. Even if Canada “is against certain Syrian policies, it is better to have a stable country than a country controlled by terrorists,” he believes. Sami Aoun, for his part, believes that in this matter, the country “will follow the instructions or strategic options of other powers such as the United States and the Europeans to some extent.”

With Agence France-Presse