Why Iran Hit Israel So Hard?

Photo: Abdel Kareem Associated Press Missiles fired by Iran toward Israel streak across the night sky from Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024.

Alex Fontaine

Posted at 7:21 p.m.

• Middle East

Iran fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel on Tuesday. The rare attack followed the assassinations of the leaders of Hezbollah and the leader of Hamas. Two experts help us see more clearly.

Why this attack ?

“Iran was forced […] to respond to what happened in Lebanon” with Israel's assassination last week of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, explains Sami Aoun, a professor at the University of Sherbrooke and director of the Observatory on the Middle East and North Africa at UQAM. Iran is an important ally of Lebanese Hezbollah and Palestinian Hamas.

“Did the strike achieve its objectives? ? Certainly, in the sense that Iran is sending a message that it still supports the factions [that are] loyal to it — Hezbollah, Hamas and the others,” Aoun notes. “There was no devastating damage,” he notes. At the time of writing, authorities reported one Palestinian dead and two Israelis injured. This leads the expert to say that this is clearly a “largely symbolic strike” by Iran.

Francesco Cavatorta, a professor of political science at Laval University, agrees. With its attacks in Lebanon, Israel would have in some way provoked Iran and forced a response, he says. “The response was to satisfy public opinion a little bit. »

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Does Iran have the military capabilities to harm Israel??

“No,” Professor Cavatorta answers immediately. If the attack was to avenge the assassination of the Hezbollah leader, it was also intended to “show that Iran has military capabilities.” “But if it comes to a more serious confrontation, Israeli and American capabilities are no match.”

Sami Aoun makes the same reading of the situation. Iranian military capabilities are “almost primary,” especially when compared to their Israeli adversaries. “The Iranians do not have the level of force [necessary to strike hard at the Jewish state], but they are certainly capable of harming Israel. For the moment, this Iranian strike is only to say: ‘We are here, we are determined to support the factions [allied to us] even if Hezbollah is bruised.’” »

What are the stakes of such an attack??

These strikes expose the internal and external tensions affecting the Iranian regime, according to the experts consulted.

“This strike came after a lot of hesitation and internal debate in Iran,” Aoun says. President Massoud Pezeshkian and his inner circle “didn’t want to go too far in revenge and retaliation.” At the same time, the Revolutionary Guards — a branch of the Iranian armed forces that is on Canada’s list of recognized terrorist entities — wanted a large-scale attack despite the risks of triggering a head-on war with Israel. Tuesday’s strikes represent “a certain compromise” between these two camps, Aoun argues.

Cavatorta says, “it finally shows that the real issue in the region is the confrontation between Israel and Iran. […] This is the rivalry that has somewhat structured regional relations in recent years.” »

What can we expect next? ?

A frontal war is unlikely, Aoun says. “The Biden administration has a very, very strong alliance with the Israeli government against Hezbollah and to deter Iran.” That said, the U.S. government “does not want to hit the Iranian facilities hard or overthrow the Iranian regime. It’s not playing that game right now.”

In Lebanon, however, “[Israeli Prime Minister] Netanyahu is unlikely to stop there,” since he is making tangible gains in his war against Hezbollah, Aoun continues. “The most likely scenario is that its war machine will continue to advance gradually through incursions [and] try to inflict more setbacks on Hezbollah.”

For his part, Francesco Cavatorta does not expect major changes on the international political chessboard. Given the strength of his alliance with the Americans and the relative disinterest of China (and Russia, which is busy with its invasion of Ukraine), “for the Israelis, at this moment, it is an excellent opportunity to try to hit as hard as possible as many enemies as possible, and without consequences,” explains the expert.