Why Weather Apps Always Crash ?

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You have already experienced it dozens of times. The weather app on your smartphone (iOS or Android) is predicting a beautiful, sunny day. But when you step outside, you realize that it's raining cats and dogs! And you're not wearing consequence.

But then how can applications built by tech giants like Apple or Google be so wrong ? In reality, the answer is twofold and much more complex than one might think at first glance.

To understand their errors, we must first look at how these applications work. Apple and Google use data provided by NOAA, the equivalent of Météo France in the United States. They can cross-reference these bulletins with those of the NWS (National Weather Service).

Although this information is as complete as possible, it is, as we will see at the end of the articles, inherently imperfect. Predicting the weather means trusting mathematical models and probabilities. But since there is no such thing as zero risk, these predictions can turn out to be wrong.

A problem in human psychology ?

And it is precisely these errors that we notice. Because the human brain hates contractions. You are not going to notify when the weather on your smartphone corresponds to reality, but only when it does not. It is unfair, but terribly human. So over 365 days a year, the few errors will seem glaring to you, while in reality they are few in number.

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Predicting the weather, a daily challenge

Because predicting the weather may be a very complex exercise, organizations like Météo France or NOAA are very good at it, especially for short-term predictions (up to D+3). The French organization points out in particular that forecasts are twice as reliable today as in 1980 (when they were already far from catastrophic).

But then, how can we explain the errors that we notice on a recurring basis ? First of all, with 365 days a year, even a reliability of 98% leaves room for 8 false announcements, which our brain will not fail to notice.

But the problem does not stop there. Indeed, Météo France's forecasts are based, as we said above, on mathematical models. We look at what has already happened in the past in a similar situation and try to draw conclusions.

However, yesterday's truths are not tomorrow's, especially in our world hit hard by global warming. The climate is changing, that is indisputable, and the weather is becoming more and more random. Météo France recognizes that global warming is a daily challenge to maintain reliable forecasts.

To adapt to this new model, the organization's calculations were revised last November, taking into account global warming and the meteorological butterfly effect that accompanies it.

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