With Barnier as Prime Minister, the Far Right Becomes “Kingmaker”

Photo: Bertrand Guay Agence France-Presse Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen, from the National Rally, before their meeting with President Emmanuel Macron, at the Élysée Palace, on August 26

Joris Fioriti – Agence France-Presse in Paris

Published at 9:57 am

• Europe

Emmanuel Macron's appointment of Michel Barnier as prime minister places the French far right in the position of “kingmaker” and strengthens its power over a government that it now holds in its hands, analysts believe.

The arrival at Matignon on Thursday of this 73-year-old right-winger, who has been a minister several times and is also a former EU negotiator for Brexit and a former European commissioner, has put an end to 60 days of suspense and frustration for the public, since the July legislative elections delivered their verdict.

“He is a man who has never been excessive in the way he has spoken about the National Rally (RN, far right), who has never ostracized the RN, he is a man of discussion,” stressed the French leader of the far right, Marine Le Pen.

Decided by Emmanuel Macron, who had dissolved the National Assembly after the rout of his camp in the European elections in June, where the far right came out on top, the legislative elections resulted in a National Assembly fragmented into three blocs: left, center right and far right.

The leading force in the National Assembly, the New Popular Front (NFP), a union of left-wing parties ranging from the social-democrat Socialist Party to the radical left of La France Insoumise, has therefore demanded all summer the appointment of a prime minister of its choice, but has come up against a refusal from Mr. Macron.

The head of state, after having declared a political truce for the duration of the Paris Olympic Games, has multiplied negotiations to find a prime minister who would not immediately succumb to a motion of censure, and who would not unravel his reforms, in particular that of pensions, to which the left was hostile.

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“Quitus” of the RN

In this context, the National Rally (RN) has “given a form of approval” for the nomination of Michel Barnier to Matignon, denounced the former socialist president turned MP François Hollande on Thursday.

“The Republican Front took place to push aside the far right, and here it is the far right that is, in a way, giving Mr. Macron the possibility of appointing a prime minister of his choice,” he deplored.

RN leader Marine Le Pen had previously torpedoed the nomination of another right-wing candidate, former minister Xavier Bertrand, her historic political adversary in the north of France, by threatening him with immediate censure.

Regarding Michel Barnier, who in 2021 advocated a 3 to 5 year “moratorium” on immigration, the far right indicated on Thursday that it would judge his general policy speech “on its merits” before deciding on a possible censure of his government.

“In a parliament divided into three, Macron’s centrist camp has chosen to make Le Pen’s far right the kingmaker,” observes Rym Momtaz, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, on X. And this to the detriment of the left-wing coalition, “because the far left of LFI was considered more toxic than the far right,” she judges.

The left having already announced that it would vote to censure the government of Michel Barnier — who had opposed the decriminalization of homosexuality in 1981 —, the future executive will therefore only be able to remain in power if the far right does not join it.

“Arbitrator” or “censor”

“In fact, the future government will find itself under the surveillance of an RN that has returned to the political game, in the position of arbiter or censor,” pointed out the daily newspaper Le Monde on Friday, in an editorial entitled: “Michel Barnier, a choice for Matignon that does not close the political crisis.”

“If we add together the Republican MPs and the central bloc MPs, there is not an absolute majority, translates the pollster Frédéric Dabi (Ifop). If the RN and the NFP want to bring down the government, they are in a large majority.”

Questioned shortly before Michel Barnier's nomination, an RN MP explained to AFP that his camp had to stand out in the current political “chaos”: “People would not forgive us for blocking everything” in the Assembly, he believed.

“We must act intelligently while not appearing to be the crutch” of the Macronists, he concluded, not ruling out censorship in a second phase.

A threat that further strengthens the RN and its leader Marine Le Pen. As analyst Mujtaba Rahman sums it up: “Given the implacable opposition to the new government of the left alliance, it has the power to bring down the new government whenever it wants.”