Zelensky in Brussels to defend his plan “for victory” before the EU and NATO

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected in Brussels on Thursday to discuss ;to defend his plan “for victory” before the 27 European leaders and the 32 NATO defence ministers, at a time when his country is in a difficult situation on the battlefield.

More than two and a half years after the start of the Russian invasion, Ukraine is retreating, particularly on the eastern front of Donbass where almost every day Moscow announces the capture of a village.

Invited by the new Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte, Volodymyr Zelensky is to meet the Ministers of Defense of the 32 countries of the Alliance, gathered in the Belgian capital. He is also invited to a summit with the leaders of the member countries of the European Union.

“We are on our way to Brussels (…) I will present the plan for victory, our instrument to force Russia to peace. We must put an end to this war in a just manner,” he declared on Thursday shortly before his departure.

After having already defended his plan in Washington, London, Paris, Berlin and Rome, the Ukrainian president revealed its broad outlines on Wednesday before the Parliament in kyiv.

Lifting restrictions on the use of weapons that the West supplies to Ukraine, deployment on Ukrainian territory of non-nuclear deterrent weapons… None of these requests have so far met with support from the Allies, who are meeting at ministerial level for two days in the Belgian capital.

– Dream of NATO membership –

The plan presented by Mr. Zelensky also recommends sending Kiev an invitation to join NATO immediately, the only real guarantee of security for his country, according to the Ukrainian president.

But here again, patience will be needed. On Wednesday, Mark Rutte thus limited himself to recalling the “irreversible” nature of Ukraine's path towards NATO.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte speaks at a press conference in Brussels on October 16, 2024 © AFP – Simon Wohlfahrt

The United States, where the presidential election will take place on November 5, is refusing for the moment to go further. “We are not at the point where the Alliance is discussing the launch of an invitation in the short term,” confirmed the American ambassador to NATO, Julianne Smith, on Wednesday.

But the Ukrainian plan will be “on the table” at the meeting on Thursday evening, Mark Rutte confirmed.

“It is, of course, a strong signal from Mr Zelensky and his team,” he continued. But “that does not mean that I can say here that I support the whole plan,” he tempered.

Several countries are cautious, fearing an escalation with Russia or, more prosaically, for budgetary reasons.

At NATO, the official line remains the same, including since the arrival of Mark Rutte at the beginning of the month. “We are working very hard to make sure that they (the Ukrainians) win,” he promised to the press on Wednesday.

– “Victory” or “defeat” –

But “there are several ways to define victory or to define defeat,” argues an official of the Atlantic Alliance.

For some of the 32 countries in this organization, Russia's setbacks at the start of its “special operation” in 2022 are already a victory in themselves, allowing for a compromise, preferable to a long and costly war, explains another NATO diplomat.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also called on Wednesday to “do everything” to prevent the conflict in Ukraine from continuing, including by talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin, but in consultation with kyiv.

Russian forces are pounding Ukraine's cities and energy infrastructure day after day, as it insists on more anti-aircraft defense systems.

In this context, expectations were high before a meeting scheduled for last Saturday of the Ramstein Group, which brings together the states helping Ukraine, in which Joe Biden was to participate, for to revive Allied support for the country. But the meeting was cancelled.

However, the US president announced to Mr Zelensky during a telephone conversation on Wednesday that the United States would provide new military aid to kyiv, valued at $425 million, which includes “additional air defence capabilities”.

However, there remains total uncertainty regarding the continuation of US aid in the event of a Donald Trump victory in the presidential election, and all eyes are on Washington before the vote. “We are in a bit of a waiting mode,” sums up a NATO diplomat.

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