Mexico: start of hostilities between the two women at the gates of the presidency

Here we go for three months: the campaign begins Friday in Mexico, where two women compete for the vote of some 99 million voters to become the first female president in the history of a country with macho reputation, with security at the heart of the debates.

Shortly after midnight (06:00 GMT), opposition candidate June 2.

Galvez organizes a “peace march” in Fresnillo (north), the most dangerous city in the country according to a national survey on the perception of insecurity by residents.

The senator will stop Friday afternoon in neighboring Guanajuato, the state which records the most homicides among the country's 32 entities.

In submitting his candidacy last week, Xochitl Galvez denounced the government's “tolerance” towards organized crime which “controls vast territories of the country”, a reference to drug cartels.

© AFP – CARL DE SOUZA

Frank-speaking, she promised that she herself would have the “ovaries” to fight against narcoviolence, responsible for a good part of the approximately 30,000 homicides recorded each year in Mexico.

More classically, Claudia Sheinbaum summoned her supporters on Friday to her stronghold in Mexico, on Zocalo, the largest square in Latin America.

Loyal to President Lopez Obrador, the candidate of the Movement for National Regeneration (Morena) intends to continue her policy of “transforming” Mexico and reducing social inequalities.

Since the election of Lopez Obrador in 2018, 8.9 million Mexicans were lifted out of poverty according to official figures.

Between December 2018 and January 2024, the minimum wage more than doubled, to nearly 250 daily pesos ($14.50).

The outgoing left-wing government can also highlight good economic results, thanks to the dynamism of trade with the United States: strong currency, good performance of foreign investments, healthy public finances, growth of 3 .1% in 2023.

– “AMLO is too popular” –

Driven by the popularity of the president outgoing (69% approval), Sheinbaum is credited with 63% of voting intentions, double those of her main opponent (31%).

© AFP – Rodrigo Oropeza

“While nothing is impossible in politics, with just over three months until the election, it is very unlikely that Galvez will be able to gain enough ground to make the race competitive,” the analyst told AFP. Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

Lopez Obrador “is too popular, and the government and party machine is too formidable,” said he added.

A third candidate, Jorge Alvarez, is far behind with 5% voting intentions. He will launch his campaign in Lagos de Moreno, a town near Guadalajara (northwest) traumatized by the kidnapping and disappearance of five young people last August, undoubtedly tortured and executed.

Mexico is preparing to organize the biggest elections in its history, with in addition to the presidential election, deputies and senators, nine of the 32 governors in the states (including Mexico City Hall) and local elections.

In this country of nearly 130 million inhabitants, electoral violence has already begun, with 33 assassinations of local political figures recorded by the company Laboratorio Electoral between June 4 and February 7, including 16 future candidates.< /p>

This Monday, two pre-candidates for mayor in the state of Michoacan (northwest) were assassinated by armed men in the same locality.

This campaign presents itself as a test for the solidity of the young Mexican democracy, open to alternation for 25 years, after 70 years of absolute domination of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).< /p>

In power since December 2018, Morena has continued to expand his influence (presidency, majority in the Assembly and the Senate, governors in the majority of the country's 32 states) .

As a prelude to the campaign, the president presented a package of constitutional reforms which, among other things, provides for the election by popular vote of judges of the Supreme Court, able to censor laws proposed by the executive.

“We're not touching democracy”, replied tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered on February 12 in Mexico City.

“We seek to ensure that elections are organized and that justice is administered by officials and judges elected with the support of the majority party”, denounced during of the rally the former president of the National Electoral Institute Lorenzo Cordova.

© AFP – ULISES RUIZ

The atmosphere of the campaign could quickly become deleterious. Two articles recently appeared in the American press, accusing the president of links between drug trafficking and his previous presidential campaigns.

The president denounced a “slander” going as far as to disclose the number of a New York Times journalist when the second article was published.

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