Photo: Sean Kilpatrick Archives The Canadian Press Of the 34 federal Liberal MPs in Quebec, 31 have confirmed that they will run in the next election, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who has repeated this many times.
Boris Proulx and Sandrine Vieira in Ottawa
Published yesterday at 11:30 a.m. Updated yesterday at 7:58 p.m.
- Canada
Among all the federal elected officials in Quebec, only two backbenchers for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals still do not want to confirm their intention to run for another term in the next election.
They are Brenda Shanahan (Châteauguay–Lacolle, in Montérégie) and Yves Robillard (Marc-Aurèle-Fortin, in Laval). The former dodged questions from Le Devoir, while the latter says he has not yet made up his mind.
Montreal Liberal Emmanuel Dubourg (Bourassa) will be absent from the Liberal ranks during the next election, having already publicly declared that he will not run again. Independent MP Alain Rayes (Richmond–Arthabaska), elected under the Conservative banner, will not seek a new mandate either.
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Le Devoir surveyed all Quebec federal deputies to find out their intentions for the next elections, which must be held no later than fall 2025.
Seventy-three of the 77 elected officials — or 95% of them — say they intend to run again, like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau), who tirelessly repeats that he will be in the next contest election.
Radio silence
This is not the case for Brenda Shanahan, who did not respond to emails or calls from Devoir. When approached in person outside parliamentary committees in Ottawa, she simply replied: “no comment.”
Ms. Shanahan narrowly won her seat in the Châteauguay–Lacolle riding following a judicial recount. Only 12 votes separated her from the Bloc candidate, Patrick O’Hara. She was first elected to Ottawa in 2015 and serves as chair of the Liberal caucus, but has never been a minister.
Contacted by < i>Le Devoir, MP Yves Robillard’s constituency office said it had not yet made up its mind. The elected representative for the Marc-Aurèle-Fortin riding, which borders the Mille Îles River in northern Laval, was first elected in 2015. He has never been a minister.
Liberal MP Anna Gainey (Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount), the last Quebecer elected in Ottawa following a by-election in June 2023, initially declined to respond. However, her office confirmed that she was also running again in the next election.
For their part, all Quebec ministers in the Trudeau cabinet will run for a future term.
Each of the 32 Bloc Québécois MPs will seek a new mandate, the party says. The same goes for the 9 Conservative MPs from Quebec, and the only NDP MP in Quebec, Alexandre Boulerice.
Quebec has 78 ridings, but one is vacant. It is LaSalle–Émard–Verdun, in Montreal, which has been unoccupied since the departure of former Justice Minister David Lametti. The Prime Minister has until July 30 to call a by-election for the seat.
Almost all in the race
The next federal general election must be held no later than October 2025. However, it could be called earlier, either on the Prime Minister's initiative or if the opposition parties join forces to make the minority government lose the confidence of the House.
The Trudeau government's third term, its second in a minority situation, is characterized by an unusual “support and confidence” agreement with the third opposition party, the New Democratic Party (NDP). This agreement gives the Liberal government a certain stability until the dissolution of Parliament in June 2025, if it so wishes.
Justin Trudeau repeats his intention to run for office fourth term as leader of the Liberal Party, despite his party's slide in the polls. According to the poll aggregation site 338Canada, the Conservatives currently have 43% of the popular vote across the country, far ahead of the Liberals (25%) and the NDP (17%).
In a statement, the Liberal Party of Canada said it was ready “to re-elect its Quebec Liberal team to the House of Commons and to elect even more talented and passionate community leaders from all walks of life as new Liberal MPs.”
Currently, half of the Liberal elected officials in place in Quebec (17 out of 34) have already been officially invested in their constituency, including ministers Mélanie Joly (Ahuntsic-Cartierville), Pablo Rodriguez (Honoré-Mercier), François-Philippe Champagne (Saint-Maurice–Champlain), Steven Guilbeault (Laurier–Sainte-Marie) and Jean-Yves Duclos (Québec).