Presidential election in Russia: Putin towards a new coronation in the middle of armed conflict

Vladimir Putin is assured; to win a new six-year term in an unopposed presidential election organized in a Russia in a better position, but nonetheless troubled by two years of a devastating conflict against Ukraine.

The election should keep Mr. Putin in power until 2030, the year he turns 77. With a potential additional mandate until 2036 thanks to a tailor-made amendment to the Constitution carried out four years ago.

Organized over three days, from March 15 to 17, the vote is taking place while the Russian president has recently increased his satisfaction, crowned with relative success on the Ukrainian battlefield, notably the capture of the fortress town of Avdiïvka.

Russian soldiers parade in Rostov-on-Don, May 9, 2023 © AFP – STRINGER

The Russian army, better equipped and more numerous, has regained the initiative and is gaining ground thanks to the failure of the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive and the drying up of Western aid to Kiev, particularly American.

At the same time, the Russian economy is resisting despite a barrage of international sanctions, by importing goods via third countries, by redirecting its hydrocarbon exports to its Asian partners and running its arms factories at full capacity.

“Members of the armed forces will not retreat, will not fail, will not betray,” said Vladimir Putin with confidence, in a speech at the end of February.

– No opposition –

The Kremlin intends to make this election a demonstration of the confidence of Vladimir Putin, in power for nearly 25 years, and who still enjoys sincere support from a large segment of the population.

The facade of the Duma, the Russian National Assembly, in Moscow, July 14, 2023 © AFP – Natalia KOLESNIKOVA

To do this, any dissent to the conflict in Ukraine was first crushed with thousands of arrests. Two declared opponents who wanted to take part in the election, Ekaterina Dountsova and Boris Nadejdine, were barred from the ballot.

The three other candidates authorized to face Vladimir Putin are nationalist Leonid Slutsky, communist Nikolai Kharitonov and businessman Vladislav Davankov. All of them previously supported the attack in Ukraine.

According to the opposition, the authorities have proven tools to obtain the expected electoral results: vote rigging, pressure on millions of civil servants to introduce the correct ballot, and even, in the occupied territories in Ukraine, massive threats and intimidation.

Opposition to Vladimir Putin © AFP – Valentin RAKOVSKY, Sabrina BLANCHARD

The Kremlin rejects these accusations and assures that the authorities will organize the type of elections that the Russian people “want”. He also warned against any Western “interference”.

Yulia Navalnaïa, the widow of the Kremlin's former number one enemy, Alexeï Navalny, who died in prison in February, called on voters to vote for “any candidate except Putin” or to invalidate their ballot by writing ” +Navalny+ in large letters”.

– Promise of billions –

A man places a wreath on the grave of Russian opponent Anexeï Navalny, in Moscow, March 2, 2024 © AFP – Olga MALTSEVA

Although the outcome of the vote is certain, the authorities have invested in pushing Russians to go to the polls, by playing on the patriotic string and presenting the vote as an essential step towards ” victory” in Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin made a series of media appearances alongside heroes of the “special military operation”, young Russians and large families, without however submitting to any debate electoral.

Russians have lunch at a fast-food restaurant “Vkusno i tochka” (Delicious, period), a former McDonald's, in Moscow, January 24, 2023 © AFP – Alexander NEMENOV

An active campaign which is explained, according to Nikolaï Petrov of the Chatham House think tank, by the fact that the authorities “cannot boost fraudulent votes too much” and want to avoid “resounding scandals” on the honesty of the vote.

In this logic, during his recent annual address to the nation, the head of the Kremlin delivered a detailed investment program until 2030, promising billions of rubles to modernize the country and increase births.

“If Putin's popularity (…) is the only basis of his legitimacy, the political elites must be sure that it is solid and greater than before”, indicates to AFP Mr. Petrov. Otherwise, they could try to look for a successor.

Election in Russia: a vote over 3 days and 12 time zones © AFP – Guillermo RIVAS PACHECO, Jean-Michel CORNU

Many ordinary Russians are worried about the instability caused by a conflict whose outcome seems distant. Prices increase with the sanctions, thousands of men have died or gone to the front, raising discontent, labor problems and aggravating an already pronounced demographic decline.

Hundreds of thousands of skilled workers also fled the country, for fear of being drafted into the army. So many factors that could worry the Kremlin in the long term.

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