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The exceptional predictability of “Super Tuesday”

Photo: Alex Brandon Associated Press

Donald Trump maintains his grip on the Republican Party, with polls showing him as the clear winner in most of the states participating in this Super Tuesday.

Fabien Deglise

March 5, 2024

  • United States

Usually a pivotal moment in the American presidential race, Super Tuesday, which will send voters in 15 American states to the polls this Tuesday March 5 to choose the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate for next November's election, seems to be this year, and for a rare time, only a simple formality aimed at confirming a result known in advance.

“At this stage of the campaign, I think that the candidacies are more than fixed,” summarizes political scientist Lynn Vavreck in an interview with Devoir , professor at the University of California. This west coast state holds its primary Tuesday as part of this massive vote across the country. “Barring something really unexpected, Joe Biden is going to be the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. And Nikki Haley [last Republican candidate to still stand up to the populist in the Conservative Party nomination] can no longer do much to change the course of things. »

Traditionally an important date in the American electoral calendar, Super Tuesday had, until this year, the capacity to make or break a presidential candidacy, by allowing the distribution of nearly a third of the delegates that candidates need to win. investiture of their party, in view of the national conventions which will be held in the middle of the year. For the Republican Party, Donald Trump must win 1,215 to ensure his nomination, out of the 2,429 at stake. He has already collected 247 with his unambiguous victories won in the first states of this process, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada were included.

Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, has only pocketed 43, blocking the road to the hyper-favorite in the race only once, to date. It happened last Sunday in the District of Columbia – the capital, Washington – and this, after Ms. Haley suffered a notable defeat a week earlier in her native state of South Carolina, where she was nevertheless elected governor twice in the past.

Donald Trump maintains his hold on the party, with polls giving him the clear winner in most of the states participating in this Super Tuesday: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. The territory of American Samoa is also going to the vote.

“Even in Utah, where he is less popular with voters in general and Republicans in particular, Trump will almost certainly win this nomination,” says specialist in American politics Quin Monson, joined at Brigham Young University in Provo, in this very religious and very conservative state. He is in the lead in voting intentions and he will take advantage of the setting of the caucuses in Utah”, whose vote, recorded in part during a gathering of voters on Tuesday evening, “attracts the most convinced Republicans and who are generally those who more strongly support Donald Trump's candidacy.”

“It would take a major political earthquake to change his trajectory towards the Republican nomination,” adds Zev Yaroslavsky, former Los Angeles County president and Democratic political activist, in an interview. The chances that he could be arrested at this stage of the campaign are between zero and none at all. »

On Monday morning, the United States Supreme Court allowed Donald Trump to avoid this earthquake by unanimously rejecting Colorado's decision to remove his name from the ballots, due to his participation in the insurrection against Capitol, January 6, 2021.

The ex-president's campaign team believes that Super Tuesday will only accelerate the consecration of the candidate who, according to those close to him, should collect the decisive majority of Republican delegates as soon as the Next March 12. It is mathematically possible, since on that day, Georgia, Hawaii, Mississippi and finally the State of Washington will decide on the fate of the 2024 presidential candidates.

Takeover of the Republican Party

On Friday, the Republican National Committee must also meet in Texas to ratify Donald Trump's decision to elect Michael Whatley, a populist loyalist, to head the party, replacing Ronna McDaniel, thus confirming the control of the businessman and president deposed in 2020, on political training.

“His hold on the psyche of most Republican voters is total,” Mr. Yaroslavsky says.

Despite 91 charges against him, Donald Trump should therefore continue on Tuesday his road towards the revenge that he ardently wishes to have through the ballot box against Joe Biden who prevented him from obtaining a second term in 2020, a rare thing in the history of presidencies in the United States. A new face-to-face meeting which does not particularly enchant voters eight months before the election.

A survey conducted by Ipsos at the end of January indicated that 67% of Americans are “tired of seeing the same candidates” competing in presidential elections and hope to see “someone new” on their ballot.

Nevertheless, on Saturday, a Siena College poll orchestrated between February 25 and 28 on behalf of the New York Times agreed a five-point lead for Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential election, facing Joe Biden who still divides Democrats on his ability to adequately represent them in the upcoming race.

In a rare interview given to the weekly The New Yorkerand published on Monday, President Joe Biden nevertheless assured that the central message of his campaign, relating to the “defense of democracy” and the “maintenance of civil peace” in the country, will ultimately bear fruit and ensure his re-election.

“How can we, in a democracy, elect someone as president who says violence is acceptable ?,” Mr. Biden said, while criticizing the attitude of the press facing Donald Trump and his authoritarian threats that the Republican candidate does not take the trouble to hide. “It’s as if you’ve all become numb to it,” he criticized the media and their representatives.

Teilor Stone

By Teilor Stone

Teilor Stone has been a reporter on the news desk since 2013. Before that she wrote about young adolescence and family dynamics for Styles and was the legal affairs correspondent for the Metro desk. Before joining Thesaxon , Teilor Stone worked as a staff writer at the Village Voice and a freelancer for Newsday, The Wall Street Journal, GQ and Mirabella. To get in touch, contact me through my teilor@nizhtimes.com 1-800-268-7116