The European Union's embargo on Russian oil risks generating a shortage of diesel at gas stations this winter.
Will motorists have diesel at their disposal? the pump this winter? Will endless queues at service stations make a comeback in France, as was already the case? the case a year ago and now the end of the first trimester this year? The risk is very real after the International Energy Agency warned this Thursday on the possibility of of a shortage of diesel in Europe in the coming months. In question, the embargo of the European Union practiced on Russian crude oil for 10 months now – in response to Russia's attack on Ukraine has been perpetuated since March 2022 – and the inability to resolve from European countries to find a real alternative.
In its monthly report released today, the IEA insists on the fact that “European refiners are still struggling to achieve their goals”. increase their processing rates and diesel production. Without Russian oil, and in the context of global production falling for several weeks now, demand in particular from Saudi Arabia in order to raise prices, Europe does not appear able to produce enough diesel to cover its needs. To avoid a shortage, the IEA encourages it to improve its yields in refineries and especially abroad. have recourse to ''sustained imports'' other countries.
Why a mild winter would be preferable
In this uncertain context, a mild winter could be an ally. for European countries. Unlike Despite certain preconceived ideas, notably due to the proven overconsumption of fuel caused by the use of air conditioning in the summer, vehicles generally consume more in the summer. #39;winter. This is explained by the fact that fuel is denser when it is cold and is therefore consumed more quickly.
Supply difficulties Moreover, the increase in diesel prices facing Europe is starting to increase. be felt on the prices at agrave; the pump. So much so that in the space of a few weeks, the price of diesel has caught up. then exceeded that of Unleaded-95 in France, with respective prices displayed at 1.89 and 1.86 euros on average last week at service stations. And the resurgence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict since the Hamas attack perpetrated on October 7, in a region where maritime oil trade is important, risks further weakening the markets and causing a further increase in prices.