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Summer trends are taking shape in France and Météo-France took the opportunity to unveil its trend bulletin for the next 3 months – i.e. June, July and August. According to the public establishment, “warmer than normal” conditions are most likely… for this summer in France. We will therefore have to expect a new heat wave like in previous years, as anticipated earlier this year by the World Meteorological Organization.
50% chance of a warmer summer
“The scenario of a quarter hotter than normal is the most likely for France. This probability is more marked for the Mediterranean regions”, Météo-France first clarified, while specifying that it is indeed a “probabilistic forecasts” and not precise weather forecasts.
The probabilities thus indicate that there is a 50% chance that mainland France will experience a summer hotter than normal, 30% consistent with normal and 20% colder. These figures remain identical to those of a previous communication by Météo-France for the period May-June-July.
In the Mediterranean basin, the chances of a warmer summer rise to around 70% while there is a 20% chance for a compliant summer and 10% for a summer colder than seasonal norms.
A lack of precipitation in the South-West?
Concerning precipitation, Météo-France anticipates that the South-West and the Mediterranean rim will probably be drier than normal – but no clear trend is emerging for the rest of the territory. This scenario does not, however, exclude occasional episodes of locally significant rainfall, as we have seen in recent months.
In Corsica and the southern regions, there is a 25% chance that the scenario “more humid than normal for the season” materializes, 25% chance for a scenario “consistent with seasonal norms” and 50% for a scenario “drier than seasonal norms”.
However, Météo-France warns against too hasty conclusions and specifies that it is “too early to predict the weather conditions of this summer week by week”. The monthly bulletin published by the organization aims to determine the trends expected on average over the quarter but the performance of these probabilistic forecasts varies depending on the location, the season and the meteorological parameter concerned.
Olympics in the heatwave?
Today, it is still impossible to predict whether the summer will be scorching, an important factor for the organization of certain sporting events in the Olympic Games. Météo-France cannot yet establish forecasts for these Olympics which will take place from July 26 to August 11. The service also emphasizes that heatwaves can be well anticipated a few days in advance, but difficult beyond eight days.
As a reminder, in 2023, the hottest year ever recorded in the world, the summer in the northern hemisphere was the hottest in 2,000 years according to a study published on May 14 in the journal Nature and confirmed by the WMO.
That said, one of the concerns for the year 2024 seems to be diminishing: the El Niño phenomenon, which tends to warm the Pacific, continues to weaken and could suggest a possible respite. The fact remains that the month of April was the 11th hottest consecutive month ever recorded on a global scale, according to the European Copernicus program.< /p>
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