© Climate Reanalyser
The European Copernicus Observatory was the first to deliver its verdict last week. This Friday, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), NASA and NOAA confirmed the verdict. 2023 will have been the hottest year in history.
This new data demonstrates, once again, that global warming is no longer a thesis “possible” but a reality of everyday life. The planet is experiencing a historic change in its temperatures, which is considerably changing the climate.
2024 will be even worse ?
At the end of 2022, the WMO, NASA and NOAA had already drawn up the same assessment. The question is therefore whether 2023 will mark the end of a cataclysmic rise in temperatures this year, or whether this year will be just another step in global warming. ?
According to Russ Vose, the head of the data analysis team at NOAA, the projections are not going in the right direction. Indeed, he estimates that there is a “one chance in three”; so that 2024 will be warmer than 2023.
In “99% of cases” this year 2024 which awaits us will be one of the 5 hottest years in the history of the planet, thereby surpassing the historic year 2003 and its heatwave.
El Nino doesn't help anything
The summer of 2021, which had been particularly hot in Europe, only came out little in historical data from NOAA, NASA and WMO. Blame it on El Nina. This powerful Pacific ocean current cools or warms the atmosphere.
With El Nina, cold waters from Antarctica rise and cool the Pacific as a whole, facilitating the cooling of the planet as a whole. But 2024 should be marked by the passage of El Nino, the exact opposite.
This natural phenomenon should therefore warm the Pacific for a few more months, causing a particularly hot southern summer. The first consequences of this warming of temperatures have already been observed in Brazil. At the end of December 2023, the city of Rio de Janeiro measured 59.3°C in its city center. A historic temperature for a southern territory.
The Paris agreements, already obsolete ?
In 2015, during COP21, 195 nations signed the Paris agreements. The latter were to ensure a limitation of global warming below 2°C. In several speeches, the governments of the time also committed to a limitation of around 1.5°C by the end of the century.
Problem, WMO has just calculated that the year 2023 will have been 1.45°C warmer compared to pre-industrial averages. The objective of the Paris Agreement is therefore almost achieved, only eight years after its signature.
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